On fossil records

Ross Tucker, a South-African physiologist whom I greatly appreciate, published six years ago an article entitled "World Records: Fossils, stagnation & a tale of two drugs". It was inspired by Ayana's world record over 10000 m at the Rio Olympics. His analysis came with the warning that "a stopwatch alone is not enough to definitively conclude that a person is doping", since Ayana's performance was extraordinary to the point that many viewed it with some skepticism. 

Tucker listed the world records, as they stood prior to Ayana's 10000 m and K. Harrisson's 100 m hurdles records established in 2016. The list is quite informative. Eight women world records established in the 80s were still standing in 2016. (K. Harrisson had just broken the 1988 record of Y. Donkova). 

(There was also one men's record standing unbeaten since the 80s, that of the discus).

So, I decided to find out what the situation was today. Well, you will not be surprised to learn that nothing has changed. The 8 women's world records (and the one of J. Schult in the men's discus) are still standing. J. Kratochvilova's 800 m record may well celebrate its 40th anniversary (but then, A. Mu may decide otherwise). 

Event	Fossil		Recent
100 m	F. Griffith-Joyner 1988	10.49	E. Thompson-Herah 2021	10.54
200 m	F. Griffith-Joyner 1988	21.34	E. Thompson-Herah 2021	21.53
400 m	M. Koch 1985	47.60	S. Eid Nasser 2019	48.14
800 m	J. Kratochvilova 1983	1:53.28	P. Jelimo 2008	1:54.01
High Jump	S. Kostadinova 1987	2.09	B. Vlasic 2009	2.08
Long Jump	G. Chistyakova 1988	7.52	T. Kotova 2002	7.42
Shot Put	N. Lisovskaya 1987	22.63	V. Adams 2011	21.24
Discus Throw	G. Reinsch 1988	76.80	V. Allman 2022	71.46

In some cases there has been recent progress and a hope to see the record broken in a near future. However in the case of the throws there is absolutely no hope. V. Allman's performance is 72nd in the all time list, and V. Adams 21.24 m throw figures at the 183rd position!

Tucker explains the situation as a result of doping. The driving force behind the explosive progress in women's records were steroid hormones. (Tucker points out that this was not an Eastern-Bloc exclusivity and hints at the case of Flo-Jo). For him the reason that doping was so successful at that time was that there were no out-of-competition tests. Once such tests were introduced performances plummeted. The graphic below (from a paper by Y. Schumacher) depicts the situation in the case of women's discus throw. 

While doping was most effective for women it did not have the same effect on men. This is understandable, since men already posses muscle mass and strength. As Tucker puts it "in women, you’re adding something to nothing, whereas in men, it’s less effective to add some to a lot".  

So concerning records the only reasonable solution would be a "tabula rasa": erase everything and start afresh. I have even proposed a subtle way to do this in my "javelin option" article. But, of course, nothing like this will ever happen.

Just before finishing, you may have remarked that Tucker's article is a "tale of two drugs" (and I must say that I did like the tribute to Dickens). Why "two" drugs. Well, Tucker talks also about EPO. The latter did not make its appearance till the 90s and was not easily detectable for almost a decade. But this is a story we are not going to tell here. Perhaps some other time.