25 December, 2018

Gen 10: the new generation

Over the two last weeks the IAAF highlighted the rise of a new generation of athletics, focusing on 10 champions under the age of 21, who are expected to become the new stars of the sport over the next few years. The idea is very interesting and the selection excellent. In fact, compared with the list of "rising stars" finalists I find that the Gen 10 list is more realistic. Of course the two lists do have a substantial 60 % overlap, but  the Gen 10 list remedies oversights, like the omission of J.M. Echevarria from the selection of rising stars. (But, then I should be careful when it comes to criticising the  IAAF choices, since It is clear that I did not pay the due attention to this year's non-european men's middle distances).

Here is the full Gen 10 list in the chronological order of appearance: 
Armand Duplantis (pole vaulter), Sydney McLaughlin (hurdler), Selemon Barega (distance runner), Briana Williams (sprinter), Juan Miguel Echevarria (long jumper), Salwa Eid Naser (sprinter), Rhonex Kipruto (distance runner), Alina Shukh (heptathlete and javelin thrower), Jakob Ingebrigtsen (middle-distance runner), and Celliphine Chespol (steeplechaser).



Some of them are already great champions, with world and/or continental titles in the senior category. And all of them are athletes one should keep an eye on in the years to come. 

The IAAF presentation is quite informative. They start with the athlete's profile supplemented with a short video of the athlete in action. Then follows a section with "10 facts" about the athlete (not always interesting) and finally a paragraph with some quantitative data about the athlete (like his records and/or titles or where he/she stands in the world hierarchy). It's an interesting reading and if you wish to learn more about this new generation of champions you should visit the IAAF site and track down the Gen 10 entries.

20 December, 2018

A great article by J. Mulkeen

In my post "Who is the best decathlete?" I was linking to an article by J. Mulkeen who was comparing five of the greatest decathletes of our times: Eaton, Sebrle, Dvorak, O'Brien and Thompson. This post of mine was an occasion to talk about D. O'Brien, D. Karpov and Yang Chuan-kwang. 

Well, Mulkeen has gone back to his analysis, adding the recent world recordman, K. Mayer, to what he calls a virtual contest.



I recommend that you visit his blog and read the post in detail.

For me what is interesting is that Mayer takes the lead only after the 8th event (but then we know that Mayer is a second-day guy). And looking again at the graphic I am as always impressed by the fact that O'Brien leads up to the 8th event. Had he paid more attention to pole vault and javelin, and accepted to suffer a little bit more in the 1500 m, he would have established a world record even beyond the one of Mayer. 

16 December, 2018

The absurdity of the Gundersen method applied to athletics

Let us start from the beginning. What is the Gundersen method? It's a method due to G. Gundersen and used in the Nordic Combined event (a winter sport in which the athletes compete in ski jumping and then in cross-country skiing). The winner of the jumping starts first in the cross-country, the remaining athletes starting with a time handicap according to their jumping score. The idea is that whoever crosses the finish line first is the winner of the event.

Recently the IAAF decided to introduce the Gundersen system in the combined events of the U20 World Championships. The fear is that once tested in the junior category it will be introduced in the senior one as well. This is a disastrous situation. I cannot understand how people, supposedly expert in athletics, could have accepted this. (I could not believe my eyes when I read somewhere that K. Mayer himself is in favour of such a system).


K. Mayer at the end of his wolrd record decathlon

So, let us see what is not OK with the Gundersen system in combined events. The Gundersen scale attributes a fixed number of seconds to a point interval: it is a linear table. The scoring table on the other hand is not linear. The precise formula for 1500 m is (time given in seconds)

points = 0.03768*(480-t)^1.85

which means that a difference of 1 point at 3 min 30 s corresponds to 0.12 s, to 0.15 s at 4:30, and 0.20 s at 5:30. So in order to apply the Gundersen method a choice must be made concerning the correspondence time-points. Let us make the reasonable assumption that for the application of the handicap the reference time will be 4 min 30 s. In this case the Gundersen formula would look like this.

points=2545-t/0.15

It is simpler to illustrate the difference between the two by a graphic. 



And now for a small experiment. Two decathletes, A and B have a point difference of exactly 100 points after the 9th event. Following the Gundersen procedure A starts first and B starts after 15 seconds, i.e. some 83 metres of initial handicap. B is a far better runner than A and chases him all along the race. They both sprint towards the finish line where A manages to maintain his advance by a very small margin. Their respective times are 4:30.01 for A and 4:15.07 for B. So A is the winner of the decathlon. True? No! When one calculates the real points corresponding to the performance, A gets 745 points and B 846. So the winner is B despite that fact that A crossed the line first. This is a direct effect of the nonlinearity of the scoring table. And I do not think anybody in their right mind would be ready to abandon it in favour of a linear table. That would amount to going back a century or so in scoring.

Why does the Gundersen method work for the nordic combined event? Simply because there is no overall score for the final performance. The only thing that counts are the relative places of the athletes. The same is true for modern pentathlon. Given that one event (fencing) depends on the athletes present, there can be no absolute score for this discipline, no world record. But this is not true for the combined events of athletics. The world records have a great emblematic value and even those who are in favour of the Gundersen method would never seriously consider to forego the record in favour of a simpler classification. 

But wait, it gets worse. I computed the point difference, after 9 events, between Mayer, during his Decastar world record, and the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 9th and 11th athlete. The difference in points is respectively 831, 958, 1230, 1786, and 1929 points. Converted into time handicap this gives 2:05, 2:34, 3:04, 4:28, and 4:50. So the second and third decathlete would start when Mayer would be completing his second 400 m lap, the 9th would start when Mayer would be sprinting towards the finish line while the 11th would have to wait a few more seconds after Mayer's arrival before starting. Is that something we would like to see? And how the average Joe watching the event on television would be able to tell who is first (remember this is the rationale behind the introduction of the Gundersen method) when athletes are lapping each other? Again, why the method works for the Nordic Combined? Simply because we are talking about a kilometres long cross country cross (typically 10 km) not a mere 400 m long stadium.

And things could get even worse when we consider a competition with massive participation. There will be 24 decathletes and heptathletes present next year in Doha for the World Championships. Could we have them run one after the other applying the Gundersen handicap? That would lead to a total chaos on the track. But separating them into heats would defeat the whole handicap idea. 

To my eyes the Gundersen method creates more problems than it solves. It puts emphasis on the victory rather than the record and while everybody agrees that the former is more important than the latter my example above shows that the handicap method is not a sure-fire one. 

Would we like to have a combined event where we wouldn't have to bother about the record and where only the victory would matter. Well, look no further. It has been invented almost three millennia ago. I am talking about the ancient pentathlon. I have dedicated one of my very first posts to this great sport of Ancient Greece. And in case you wonder who would have been victorious in an ancient pentathlon contest between Eaton and Mayer, I am convinced that Mayer would carry the event, although he would have had to wrestle Eaton for this (not an akoniti, dustless, victory).  

12 December, 2018

IAAF council decisions (and some bad ones)

The Monaco meeting of the IAAF is not only an occasion to reward the best performers of the year but also the moment when the IAAF Council makes decisions for the next year(s).




Some of the decisions are of essentially political character. For instance, 

The Council also accepted the Russia Taskforce’s recommendation not to reinstate RusAF until the following two conditions have been met in full: confirmation that the Athletics Integrity Unit has been given data and access to the samples that it needs to determine which of the Russian athletes in the Laboratory Information Management System database have a case to answer for breach of the IAAF anti-doping rule and that RusAF pays all the costs incurred in the work of the taskforce.

So, again in 2019, we are going to have the authorised russian athletes compete as stateless persons. (I prefer the french word "apatride" instead of "stateless": I find it more forceful).

The good news is that Budapest has been selected as the host city for the 2023 World Athletics Championships. A key component of the bid of Budapest was the construction of a new stadium. Given the experience of Hungary in athletics one can be really optimistic about the 2023 World's.

On more technical points

The qualifying standards for next year's World Championships in Doha were approved. Essentially, target numbers were introduced for road events and the number of teams qualified from the IAAF World Relays was increased from 8 to 10 in the 4x100 m and 4x400 m relays and to 12 for the 4x400 m mixed relay.

An amendment was approved concerning the substitutes for relay races. Under the new rule it will be allowed for four additional athletes to be used once a relay team has started the competition. Initially the number of substitutes was two. The new rule means that the team running in the final may be totally different from the one running in the qualifiers.

And now moving to progressively worse and worse decisions

The IAAF will submit a request to the IOC for the inclusion of the women’s 50km race walk in the Tokyo programme, even though the deadline for 2020 Olympic programme changes has passed. As you know I consider the whole race-walking discipline an institutionalised cheating: the walkers are running most of the time. So, every decision which aims at amplifying the scope of race-walking is a bad one to my eyes.

A proposal was made to amend the lane infringement rule, in the wake of the number of disqualifications during the World Indoor Championships in Birmingham this year. Unfortunately the Council did not accept the recommendation, asking for further information. 
Last year's 400 m have been marred by excessively harsh disqualifications. 
And, since many the Birmingham judges will be present also this year, this means that we may have another massacre at the Glasgow European indoors. Apparently the IAAF is waiting for another bout of the same before taking a courageous decision.
 For me the situation is clear: if the athlete does not gain any material advantage and does not obstruct any other athlete by stepping outside his lane, he should not be disqualified. An experienced judge can very well decide if the lane infringement provided any advantage to the athlete.

There were also changes to the competition programme of the World U20, 2020, Championships, to be held in Nairobi. The mixed 4x400m relay is now part of the program (a decision I fully approve). On the other hand 10000 m for men is eliminated from the program (and why, in the first place, women were discriminated?). The decision is that now men and women will compete over 3000 m and 5000 m. I don't understand. Is there such a big difference between 3000 and 5000 m? To my eyes the right choice of events if 5000 and 10000 m, period. If the IAAF wishes to eliminate the 10000 m, this is perfectly OK. But adding the 3000 m for men is absurd: they should have eliminated it from the women's program as well.

And to top it off

It was decided to introduce the Gunderson (sic) method for the final event of combined events. The Gundersen method consists in introducing an interval start with a handicap based on points difference converted into time. This converts the last race in a pursuit one, the aim being that the athletes finish in their final rank order. The IAAF Council decision draws their inspiration from the modern pentathlon! I couldn't believe my eyes when I read this. The noblest sports discipline drawing inspiration from a marginal, superannuated sport that should have been eliminated from the Olympics decades ago! But let's put this aside and look at the decision itself. The only reason the IAAF is doing this is for ignoramuses watching the event on tv to be able to tell who is the winner. But with the technical means available today we can have the classification just a second or two after the athletes have crossed the line. This should have been enough for anybody who is even marginally interested in athletics. I still recall A. Eaton's superhuman effort, during his 9045 points world record in Beijing's 2015 World's, racing behind L. Bourrada's steady rhythm, or K. Mayer being paced by J. Lelièvre during most of his world record decathlon 1500 m. All this will be thing of the past if the IAAF decides to extend to senior athletes what they will be experimenting on the juniors. I find this preposterous. (And a longer post on this point is under preparation).

06 December, 2018

Caterina Ibargüen is the athlete of the year

In my previous post I had written

Much as I would have liked to see Ibargüen crowned, I do not see how she can compete against Chepkoech and MIller-Uibo.

Well, I was wrong and I am glad about this. Ibargüen is among the few female athletes that I adore (together with the great M. Ottey, M. Ahouré, N. Thiam and I. Spanovic). I have been following her ascension since quite a few years, applauding her Olympic and World titles. After she lost the 2017 world title for a trifle I was afraid that she was going to call it quits. But I did not count with her extreme resilience and her combativeness. 


A radiant C. Ibargüen

At 34 she proved that she is the best horizontal jumper ever winning the Diamond League, Continental Cup and Central American and Caribbean Games titles in both jumps. She did not have an over-15 jump this year but on the other hand she did improve her personal best in long jump with 6.93 m. Had she decided to specialise in long jump, she would have been and 7+ jumper. Now I am crossing my fingers for 2019 and 2020, where Ibargüen will go for gold at the World's and the Olympics respectively. 

While Ibargüen's title came as a very pleasant surprise to me, that of Kipchoge was a no-brainer. He was my favourite from the outset and the fact that Mayer obtained the European title made Kipchoge's nomination inescapable. 


Ibargüen with Kipchoge

Looking at the photo, next to Ibargüen's 1.80 m, Kipchoge's 1.67 m looks really diminutive. But do not let his size fool you: he is really the best marathoner ever (and since he is as strong as ever, he may even equal the mythical Abebe Bikila with a victory in Tokyo).


Duplantis (left) with Karalis, the greek pole vaulter 
who held (briefly) the U20 wortld record this year

Concerning the rising star award, M. Duplantis obtained the well-deserved title. I did not consider him in my junior top list since I included him in the senior one. But still, if there were to be single rising star in athletics, that would be Mondo Duplantis.


S. McLaughlin, in last year's ceremony

My prediction was 100 % accurate concerning the female rising star. S. McLaughlin was, and by far, the best low-hurdler of the year, in both the U20 and the senior category. I expect her to be world record holder no later than 2020. On the other hand I did prefer her in the white dress of the 2017 ceremony. I found the black dress and eye-glasses she wore this year a tad too severe. 


E. Pesiridou after her fall in the 60 m hurdles in the World Indoors

And while we are at it. The ceremony was also the occasion to award the best athletics photo of the year. You can find about the photo that (quite deservedly) obtained the first prize by visiting the IAAF page. But I could not resist the temptation to include here a photo involving a greek athlete, which did make it to the short-list. It was a most unfortunate moment for the greek hurdler but the photo is great.