The Photograph of the Year finalist and a World Athletics blunder

On November 16, on the World Athletics site, appeared an article with the finalist of the photograph of the year. It contained just three photos. The one by Ryan Pierse is the most original and will probably garner the prize. 

Mind you, the photo has received some serious post-treatment. A photo from the running jump competition area would initially look something like the one below.

Out of the three finalists the one I prefer is the one of Tkachuk at the start of the 400 m hurdles semi-final under the torrential rain. But of course this has also to do with the really unique conditions under which that race was run. 

However the article was frustrating since we did not have access any other photos among the submitted ones. And then on November 23 the situation became clear: WA had put the cart before the horse. They had announced the finalists before the shortlisted ones. The latter (a list of 25) appeared on the 23rd and included some really nice photos like the one of T. Davis in the long jump sand pit

or the one below where a pole vault competitor is reflected in a water puddle. 

(Remember, the women's pole vault qualifiers were held under the same pouring rain as the 400 m hurdles and the women's discus).

Fortunately WA realised their blunder and gave us access to this nice collection of photos (not all of them taken during the Olympics, although the finalists are).

The same day the finalists of the Male and Female World Athlete of the Year 2021 were also announced. No big surprises there. Here are the lists, for men

J. Cheptegei
R. Crouser
A. Duplantis
E. Kipchoge
K. Warholm

and for women,

S. Hassan
F. Kipyegon
S. McLaughlin
Y. Rojas
E. Thompson-Herah

I have only a minor remark on the men's list: I would have included Warner in place of Cheptegei, but, given that neither has serious hopes for the title, this is not really important.

For the women's list I have trouble understanding the absence of P. Jepchirchir who, after having won the Olympic Marathon, went on to win the New York one, an unprecedented feat. And of course, what I consider a major injustice is the systematic shunning of A. Wlodarczyk. It's a mystery to me why World Athletics is systematically snubbing the best female hammer thrower of all times.

Now that the finalists lists are out, it's time to make predictions for the winners of the title. Given that Duplantis won last year and Kipchoge has already won twice, I think that the only serious male candidates are Crouser and Warholm. I would split the probabilities 40 to 60 % in favour of Warholm. In the case of women, Rojas has won last year and I don't believe that either Hassan or Kipyegon have serious hopes. So the title will be decided among McLaughlin and Thompson. And my bet is 60 to 40 % in favour of McLaughlin. Now we have to wait till next week for the answer.