Where are the talents of yesteryear?

Warning! This article was written before the 2023 World's 1500 m final where Kerr managed to beat Ingebrigtsen for the world title. Nothing has changed as far as the conclusions of the present article are concerned, and my comments on what went on in the 2023 World's can be found in the corresponding article.

The origin of this post is somewhat complicated, so I feel that some explanations are in order. As you know I am a big fan of Pierre-Jean Vazel and I follow regularly his tweets. There is always something interesting there. However, with the turmoil Twitter is undergoing I have resorted to asking Google whenever I was looking for something specific. And, during one of my searches, Google pointed me to an article by Vazel on the Simplifaster site. It was an analysis of Keni Harrison’s, 2016, 12.20 s world record 100 m hurdles race. That was not what I was looking for, but I was intrigued and I decided to read it. As usual, Vazel's analysis is great and I do recommend that you give it a try.

Vazel explains that Harrison dipped and one of the two photoelectric cells on the finish line could not detect her. So the initially announced time was wrong (based on the second finisher). Of course, once the photo finish was analysed all went back to normal and Harrison got the world record. This led Vazel to comment on a similar situation when in the women(s 400 m race at the Rio, 2016, Olympics, Shaunae Miller dived across the finish line, causing a timing bug. The screen displayed Miller’s time as 49.51, but that was Allyson Felix's time. Of course, the photo finish gave the correct times 49.44 to 49.51, and the victory to Miller. Vazel then went on to cite Kumari Taki’s dive during the 1500 m final at the 2016 World U20 Championships. (Vazel is talking about 5000 m, a curious mistake for somebody of his experience). I had never heard of this and I decided to look for the video. Fortunately, it did exist and I discovered that among the participants of the final was one Jakob Ingebrigtsen.

Ingebrigtsen finished 9th in that race (he was just 16 years old) and went on to become one of the best middle-distance runners of all time, winning olympic and world titles. When I read Vazel's article I was following the 2023 European U20 championships and I was wondering how many of the protagonists would survive the transition to senior category. The 1500 m final of the 2016 World U20 Championships was a good test case. So I decided to find out what has become of the finishers. 

1. Kumari Taki, PB 3:34.14 (2020). He was 4th at the 2022 African Championships. No performances in 2023 but this may be due to injury.

2. Taresa Tolosa, PB 3:34.47 (2017). He was 5th at the 2016 African Championships.  Won a Diamond League event in 2018. He moved to longer distances from 2020.

3. Anthony Kiptoo, PB 3:35.33 (2015). Disappeared after 2018.

4. Baptiste Mischler, PB 3:32.42 (2021). He is still in activity but only at a national level.

5. Ajay Kumar Saroj, PB 3:39.19 (2023). He was Asian champion in 2017 and again in 2023.

6. Matthew Ramsden, PB 3:34.08 (2021). He was the Oceania champion in 2021.

7. Jordi Torrents, PB 3:40.92 (2016). He dropped out in 2018, then came back in 2022 but did not have any performance in 2023.

8. Asres Guadie, PB 3:41.9 (2017). Disappeared after 2018.

10. Josh Kerr, PB 3:29.05 (2021). He was 3rd in the Tokyo Olympics. (And world champion in 2023).

11. Elzan Bibic, PB 3:34.20 (2023). He was 3rd in the European Indoors 2023.

12. Ayoub Sniba, PB 3:39.42 (2018). Disappeared after 2018. (He had the best time in the heats, a time sufficient for first place in the final, but apparently, the slow, tactical, race in the latter did not suit him).

So, out of the 12 finalists, we have one superstar, one who is part of the middle-distance elite, 3 who have distinctions at a continental level, 3 who are still active albeit with no great success, and 4 who just dropped out. Is that representative of athletics in general? Should one expect fewer than half of the athletes who were distinguished when junior to have a successful career as senior? I don't know the answer to these questions. However, it is clear that many of the athletes we admired in Jerusalem, during the U20 Europeans, will turn out to be early bloomers, withering soon after.